Scenarios and models of agro-food exports in russia: retrospective analysis

Issue № 9, 2019, article № 9, pages 85-94

Section: ABROAD

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРИИ И МОДЕЛИ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО ЭКСПОРТА В РОССИИ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ

Keywords: AGROFOOD POLICY, AGROFOOD COMPLEX, EXPORT, EXPORT FORECASTING, EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

Abstract: The article provides an assessment of the level of implementation of the development of agro-food exports in Russia and a comparison of the parameters of the current forecasts with the current indicators of implementation of national projects. A retrospective review of the quantitative parameters of scenarios and forecasts of the development of Russian exports of agro-food products in state planning documents and proposed by domestic researchers was carried out from the point of view of their correlation with the established goals of the state agro-food policy. The quality of forecasts in indicative planning of agro-food exports and in the period of transition to program-targeted planning in 2018 was evaluated. The analysis of trends in the volume of agro-industrial exports was carried out, including the construction of a general trend model for 2001-2018, the testing of the hypothesis on the uniformity of the sample and the presence of the point of intervention of the time series in 2010 and the extrapolated for the period up to 2024. The trust limits of the export forecast do not include the target value specified by the national project passport. An analysis of the intensity of change and concentration of the structure of agro-food exports was carried out, including a retrospective analysis for 2001-2017 and an estimate of the forecast change of the structure by commodity groups in 2024. Using the Ryabtsev coefficient, the presence of more intensive and significant target structural changes in 2024 was proved, Compared to actual changes in the periods 2001-2009 and 2011-2017. That the target diversification of agro-food exports in 2024, estimated using the Herfindal-Hirschman index, exceeds the values achieved in 2001-2017 due to the concentration of grain exports.

Authors: Ternovskii Denis Sergeevich