Modeling of impact of climatic changes on agriculture of russia

Issue № 4, 2019, article № 3, pages 20-28

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА СЕЛЬСКОЕ ХОЗЯЙСТВО РОССИИ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE, MATHEMATICAL MODEL, ADAPTATION, GOVERNMENT REGULATION

Abstract: The article deals with topical issues of assessing the impact of global climate change on agriculture. The dynamic model of climate change impact on the economy of agriculture of the Russian Federation presented in the article simulates three related processes: climate change itself, technological development of agriculture and improvement of human capital. Of particular interest is the use of this model for the design of the regulator that solves the problem of adaptive control by the criterion of minimizing the negative effects of climate change on agriculture. The model can be applied to designing of the regulator solving a problem of adaptive management of criterion of minimization of negative manifestations of climatic dynamics on agriculture. The research allowed proving that concrete weather realization of the general climatic trends can have significant effect on "price" of climatic adaptation.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna