Forecast of Gross Agricultural Output in Russia until 2036

Issue № 9, 2026, article № 1, pages 3-15

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ВАЛОВОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА РОССИИ ДО 2036 ГОДА

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, PRODUCTION FORECAST, AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY, INVESTMENTS IN THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, GRAIN STRATEGY, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, YIELD, HERD PRODUCTIVITY, CULTIVATED AREAS

Abstract: The article presents a long-term forecast of Russia's gross agricultural output until 2036, developed based on an economic and mathematical partial equilibrium model and considering two development scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). In the optimistic scenario, with no restrictions on the supply of agricultural machinery, the average annual growth rate of agricultural production is expected to be 2.2% (index 144.4% by 2021), while in the pessimistic scenario, with restrictions on the import of agricultural machinery, the average annual growth rate is expected to be 0.9% (index 111.9%). To achieve the projected production volumes, it is necessary to introduce 20 million hectares of arable land into circulation, increase the fleet of machinery by 45-65%, provide 12.1 million tons of mineral fertilizers per year, and increase the productivity of livestock and crops. The requirements for capital investments in agricultural organizations and the indices of investments in fixed assets (average annual growth of 3.6-3.7%) have been calculated. The forecast takes into account strategic documents on the development of the agro-industrial complex, technical support limitations, investment activity, and global trends. The forecast results can be used in the development of long-term strategies for the development of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation.

Authors: Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna