Factor analysis and adaptive mechanism of state support for technological modernization of agriculture in the Altai Territory

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 6, pages 62-70

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: ФАКТОРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И АДАПТИВНЫЙ МЕХАНИЗМ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ПОДДЕРЖКИ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ МОДЕРНИЗАЦИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА АЛТАЙСКОГО КРАЯ

Keywords: TECHNOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION, AGRICULTURE, ALTAI TERRITORY, RESOURCE POTENTIAL, EFFICIENCY, STATE SUPPORT, FACTOR ANALYSIS, PANEL REGRESSION, INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS, CLUSTER ANALYSIS

Abstract: In the context of sanctions pressure and the need to ensure food sovereignty, technological modernization is becoming an imperative for the development of the agricultural sector of key regions, which include the Altai Territory. The purpose of the study is a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of the technological modernization of agriculture in the region and the identification of systemic restrictions that constrain this process. The methodological base includes a systematic approach, economic and statistical analysis, panel regression modeling and machine learning methods (Random Forest, XGBoost). The information base was compiled by data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Altai Territory and the results of a sample survey of 50 agricultural organizations. The article diagnosed the critical state of resource potential: the level of depreciation of fixed assets (48%) exceeds the national average, and the structural imbalances of the fleet create a "bottleneck effect" with an annual damage of 3.5-5.2 billion rubles. Positive, but different-speed dynamics of efficiency was revealed, accompanied by an increase in technological inequality (the differentiation coefficient for digitalization between large and small farms reaches 13.0). Using econometric modeling, the "paradox of the Altai Territory" was proved - the dominant role of state support (β=0.41) and the level of wages (β=0.38) as key drivers of modernization in conditions of chronic underfunding. The presence of a synergistic effect between state support and digitalization has been established (interaction effect 0.31). The need for a transition to a differentiated organizational and economic mechanism that implements the principle of "support for the request of the cluster" is justified.

Authors: Seliverstov Maksim Vladimirovich, Minenko Aleksei Vasilevich