Forecast of the development of the domestic meat and meat products market in the system of international economic relations

Issue № 6, 2026, article № 7, pages 59-73

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ РАЗВИТИЯ ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОГО РЫНКА МЯСА И МЯСОПРОДУКТОВ В СИСТЕМЕ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ СВЯЗЕЙ

Keywords: EXPORT, FORECAST, MARKET CAPACITY, MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AGRI-FOOD MARKET

Abstract: The methodological basis for adjusting the course of the export-oriented strategy in the agro-industrial complex to the development trends of the global food market is economic forecasts. Taking into account the fact that the strategic goal of the state is to increase the volume of exports of agricultural products by 1.5 times by 2030 compared to 2021, the question arises: what promising areas of export of agricultural products will ensure the achievement of this goal in modern trade formats. In this regard, there is a need to develop and justify a forecast for the development of the domestic meat and meat products market, which makes it possible to assess the prospects for the development of its individual segments both within the country and in the system of international economic relations, improving the priorities of the state agri-food policy. The article outlines the trends in the development of the global meat and meat products market, analyzes the dynamics of domestic production and exports of certain types of meat. A forecast of the domestic demand of the country's population for meat and meat products has been developed according to two scenarios: basic and optimal, taking into account rational norms of food consumption, as well as the tastes and preferences of Russians, and the economic accessibility of food. Forecasts of production and export of certain types of meat from Russia have been developed according to three main scenarios: basic, targeted, optimistic. The baseline scenario is based on maintaining the current dynamics of production and export supplies of meat with a total export volume of up to 1066.18 thousand tons. The target scenario is aimed at increasing the production and export of poultry and pork meat with a total volume of meat exports of 1,294.18 thousand tons. The optimistic scenario assumes an active expansion of domestic meat producers into the markets of Southeast Asian countries with an increase in the total volume of meat exports to 1583.35 thousand tons. The implementation of the targeted and optimistic scenarios will require active government support for the livestock industry, stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country related to the creation of a favorable investment climate in the industry, and strengthening trade and economic cooperation with the EAEU, CIS, China and other Southeast Asian countries.

Authors: Kuznetsov Vladimir Vasilevich, KHolodova Marina Aleksandrovna