Forecast parameters of the development of the domestic market of oilseeds and fat and oil products in the system of international economic relations

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 7, pages 66-78

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ ПАРАМЕТРЫ РАЗВИТИЯ ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОГО РЫНКА МАСЛИЧНЫХ КУЛЬТУР И МАСЛОЖИРОВОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ В СИСТЕМЕ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ СВЯЗЕЙ

Keywords: EXPORT, FORECAST, OILSEEDS, SUNFLOWER OIL, AGRI-FOOD MARKET

Abstract: In the context of the global imbalance of the global agri-food market and the increasing sanctions pressure from Western countries on the Russian agricultural sector, the issues of finding the most effective "growth points" of the agricultural export are becoming relevant. The change of marginal drivers in the global food market towards oilseeds necessitates the development and justification of forecast parameters for the development of the domestic market of oilseeds and fat-and-oil products (using the example of the sunflower oil market) in the system of international economic relations in order to form the most effective mechanisms for their regulation in the context of current trends. The article presents a forecast of the gross harvest of oilseeds, developed on the basis of trend modeling methods, which made it possible to substantiate the target scenario for the development of the domestic oilseed market, suggesting an improvement in natural and climatic conditions in the south of the country, the presence of foreign breeders on the seed market, improvement of technologies for growing export-oriented crops such as rapeseed and soybeans, an increase in the share of oilseeds in the structure of crop rotations, including through new territories, the development of logistical links, maintaining existing barriers to customs and tariff regulation. Based on the balances of sunflower and sunflower oil food resources, in combination with trend and simulation modeling methods, a target forecast scenario for the development of the sunflower oil market in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 has been developed, indicating the presence of its significant export potential and resource provision. The forecast of sunflower oil exports is calculated and justified taking into account the volume of domestic consumption, as well as the capacity of the global sunflower oil market. Potential sales markets are identified based on an assessment of prospective consumer demand, the level of export and import prices in target markets, and instruments of customs and tariff regulation.

Authors: Kuznetsov Vladimir Vasilevich, KHolodova Marina Aleksandrovna