Analysis of dynamic transformation of agro-indussious models

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 4, pages 35-43

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: АНАЛИЗ ДИНАМИЧЕСКОЙ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ МОДЕЛЕЙ АПК

Keywords: REGIONAL AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, DYNAMIC MODELS, RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS, TREND METHOD

Abstract: In this paper, the author evaluates production patterns for the main segments of the agro-industrial complex, namely, meat, milk, and grain production per capita, both in Russia as a whole and in individual federal districts. An analysis over long periods reveals multidirectional dynamics in changes in per capita agricultural production volumes across Russian regions. For example, a long-term positive development trend can almost always be discerned in production volumes, while the Southern, Siberian, and Ural Federal Districts are characterized by stationarity in the production volumes of certain products. The author also conducts a comparative analysis of changes in the dynamics of these productions during the Soviet, post-Soviet, and modern stages of agro-industrial complex development. The trends identified in the paper show the highest per capita agricultural production volumes during the Soviet period from 1961 to 1990; a decrease in production volumes of all agricultural products under consideration between 1991 and 2005; and an increase in the rate of meat and grain production since 2006. The time series assessment tools presented in the model allow us not only to track the dynamics of changes in per capita production volumes, which underlies the assessment of Russia's food security, but also to evaluate the agricultural sector's response to the state's policy of supporting the agro-industrial complex.

Authors: Tindova Mariia Gennadevna, Vaganova Olga Evgenevna, Bobrova Elena Aleksandrovna