The main agricultural products production assessment in Russia in 2026

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 1, pages 3-17

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ОСНОВНЫХ ВИДОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ В РОССИИ В 2026 ГОДУ

Keywords: FORECAST, CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION RESULTS OUTCOME, YEAR OPPORTUNENESS DEGREE, OUTCOME FREQUENCY, WEATHER AND AGRO-TECHNICAL FACTORS, AGRICULTURE

Abstract: The article presents the forecast of the main types of agricultural products production in Russia in 2026, made in line with the methodology developed in Agrarian policy and Agro-industrial complex development department of FSBSI FRC VNIIESH. The main forecast indicators are: areas and agricultural crops yields, livestock and productivity of animals, gross production. Crops yields dynamics has been analyzed since 1980, the consistency degree of main crops yields with grain has been determined, relative indicators of variation and average square were calculated. As a result, the multidirectional dynamics of grain yields from one hand and sunflower seeds and sugar beet from the other hand has been established. In our research the basis for determining the year’s favorability degree (“outcome”) is the grain crops yield, covered over 17% of the gross agricultural output and about 30% of the gross crop production output in 2025. An outcome probability in general in Russia and by regions in terms of grain yields has been estimated. According to our estimates, in 2026 we should expect the implementation of an average weather year with grain production in the amount of 131.9 million tons (69% probability), a favorable year – 146,5 million tons (17%), an unfavorable year – 92,4 million tons (14%). The results of the outcome probability calculated by grain yields ranges by regions differ from the indicators calculated in general in Russia: 50%, 36% and 14%.

Authors: Ushachev Ivan Grigorevich, Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna