Forecast of agricultural and rural territory development, taking into account diversification of activities based on agricultural tourism

Issue № 3, 2026, article № 14, pages 124-130

Section: Competition of young authors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА И СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ С УЧЕТОМ ДИВЕРСИФИКАЦИИ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ НА ОСНОВЕ АГРАРНОГО ТУРИЗМА

Keywords: AGRARIAN TOURISM, DIVERSIFICATION, RURAL AREAS, AGRICULTURE, FORECASTING, INERTIAL FORECAST, SCENARIO FORECAST

Abstract: The development of rural areas and agriculture are interrelated, and the results of their development indicate strategic planning problems. Among the various areas of diversification, agritourism is the most significant for the development of agriculture and rural areas, combining the development of the territory and production into a single system and creating a synergistic effect. As an additional type of activity of agricultural producers, it is not a substitute, but stimulating the main production. This article presents forecasts for the development of agriculture and rural areas of the study region (using the example of the Kostroma region), taking into account the factor of their diversification based on agricultural tourism. Two types of forecasts have been developed: inertial and scenario. Inertial forecasts are built using trends based on the assumption that the prevailing trends are unchanged. Scenario forecasts take into account the impact of the development of agritourism on the indicators of agriculture and rural areas. Inertial and scenario forecasts of the main indicative indicators at different levels of the economic system in the studied region give different results. The developed forecasts can make it possible to carry out program-targeted planning, assess the effectiveness of the implementation of state regional programs, and adjust control actions.

Authors: Kadetova Natalia Aleksandrovna