Prospects for Russian agri-food exports to Iran under a Full-Fledged Free Trade Agreement

Issue № 2, 2026, article № 14, pages 141-153

Section: ABROAD

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РОССИЙСКОГО АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО ЭКСПОРТА В ИРАН В УСЛОВИЯХ ПОЛНОФОРМАТНОГО СОГЛАШЕНИЯ О СВОБОДНОЙ ТОРГОВЛЕ

Keywords: AGRI-FOOD EXPORTS, RUSSIA, IRAN, EAEU, EAEU-IRAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, TARIFF QUOTAS, RCA INDEX, NORTH-SOUTH TRANSPORT CORRIDOR, NON-TARIFF BARRIERS, EXPORT POTENTIAL

Abstract: The article provides a comprehensive study of the dynamics, structure and prospects of Russian agri-food exports to Iran, analyzing the transition from a temporary to a full-fledged Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The methodology incorporates an analysis of the commodity structure of trade, calculation of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indices, and an assessment of export potential based on ITC TradeMap data. The findings indicate a fourfold increase in trade turnover between 2015 and 2023, with Russia dominating the supply of wheat and sunflower oil. Realizing the export growth potential for the most promising goods could lead to a supply value of $8.2 billion. A detailed analysis of the new FTA’s tariff conditions, central to this study, reveals significant differentiation: while an unconditional zero duty applies to corn and soybeans, limited tariff quotas for key goods (wheat, barley) constrain the realization of a substantial part of the export potential. The study concludes that the success of Russian agricultural exports to Iran will be determined by the ability to address a triple challenge: the effective use of tariff preferences amid competition within the EAEU, integration into transport corridors ("North–South") and the harmonization of non-tariff regulation systems.

Authors: Romashkin Roman Anatolevich, Kamenetskaia Olga Vladimirovna, Seitov Sanat Kairgalievich, Samushiia Aleksandr IAkovlevich