Methodology of development of the agrofood market

Issue № 6, 2018, article № 5, pages 46-53

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО РЫНКА

Keywords: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL MARKET, WHEAT MARKET, METHODOLOGY, THEORY OF MARKETS, PERSPECTIVE, EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

Abstract: The article presents the methodology of the prospects of the agro-industrial market and the relevance of its development. The concept of modeling the market prospects as a dynamic mechanism of supply-demand balance is proposed, the method of modeling the market prospects on the basis of variation deviations of trends is developed. The application of the proposed approach makes it possible to demonstrate the connection of the basic provisions of the market equilibrium theory with the problems of assessing the prospects of the situation in the agricultural markets. The market outlook modeling methodology includes four successive stages. Testing of the proposed method was carried out using official Rosstat data on the grain market. Over a twenty-year time interval, the changes in prices and production volumes were analyzed. The basic statistical parameters of regression are defined. The quantitative parameters of the dependence of the volumes of supply and demand and prices are established. The conditions of market equilibrium in the wheat market are determined. The elasticity of supply and demand for the price is estimated. The gradient and the nature of the market balance are revealed, the prospect of the Russian wheat market is described. Testing confirms the practical usefulness of the results in the wheat market prospects management. The proposed methodology can be used in the analysis of other markets with significant variability of parameters by their operators.

Authors: SHabanov Timofei IUrevich, Kopchenov Aleksei Aleksandrovich