Sustainability of dairy farming through convergence of industry indicators: regional analysis.

Issue № 10, 2025, article № 9, pages 80-90

Language: Russian

Original language title: УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ РАЗВИТИЯ МОЛОЧНОГО ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА ЧЕРЕЗ КОНВЕРГЕНЦИЮ ОТРАСЛЕВЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ: РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ

Keywords: CONVERGENCE, DIVERGENCE, MILK YIELD, PROFITABILITY, WAGES, MILK PRODUCTION

Abstract: The article examines the problem of regional convergence of production and economic indicators in Russia's dairy farming sector, using data from 80 regions over the period 2010-2024. The study proposes to consider convergence as an indicator of sustainable development in agriculture. The aim of the work is to test hypotheses about the presence of convergence for three key industry indicators: milk yield per cow, profitability of milk production, and wages in livestock farming. Additionally, the study analyzes trends in regional redistribution of milk production to identify signs of polarization or sustainable development. The convergence analysis was conducted using σ- and β-convergence assessment methods. Quintile analysis was applied to evaluate the dynamics of milk production across groups of regions ranked by the studied indicators. For wages and profitability, both β- and σ-convergence were confirmed. However, milk productivity showed β- and σ-divergence, meaning the gap between leading and lagging regions increased over time. The convergence in wages and profitability reflects the influence of market mechanisms, while the productivity divergence calls for targeted policies to reduce technological gaps. Milk production growth varies across quintiles depending on the ranking indicator: for profitability and wages, it is more balanced, indicating catch-up development in weaker regions, whereas productivity shows polarization favoring leading regions. The results suggest the need for differentiated support measures for agricultural producers to ensure sustainable development. The convergence of key agricultural indicators is proposed to be included in the monitoring system of the State Agricultural Development Program to assess its effectiveness.

Authors: Nikulina IUliia Nikolaevna