Analysis of the dynamics and forecasts of agricultural production in Russia

Issue № 10, 2025, article № 7, pages 60-70

Language: Russian

Original language title: АНАЛИЗ ДИНАМИКИ И ПРОГНОЗЫ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ПРОДУКЦИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА РОССИИ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, FORECASTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, FORECASTING

Abstract: An analysis of the cost indicators of agricultural production (in the whole industry, crop production and animal husbandry) for the period 2000-2024 showed the presence of an upward linear trend in the development of indicators and the absence of cyclical fluctuations. Crop production developed at a faster pace, with output increasing by an average of 10.9% per year in actual prices and by 2.9% per year in comparable prices in 2000. During the period under review, livestock production increased by an average of 10.9% per year in actual prices and by 1.9% per year in comparable prices in 2000. In the industry as a whole, on average, over the period 2000-2024, the value of products grew by 10.9% per year in actual prices and by 2.5% per year in comparable prices in 2000. The smallest approximation errors in predicting the cost of production were given by the Holt double exponential smoothing and LSTM network models: for crop production, respectively, 5.7% and 3.9%; for livestock, 1.3% and 0.98%. The forecasts averaged over both models gave the following values for agricultural production volumes in 2025-2027, subject to the preservation of prices in 2024 and trends in the period 2000-2024: in 2025, the industry as a whole – 9200.5 billion rubles, in crop production – 4854.5 billion rubles, in livestock – 4346 billion rubles; in 2026, in the industry as a whole – 9370.6 billion rubles, for crop production – 4958 billion rubles, for livestock – 4412.6 billion rubles; in 2027, for the industry as a whole – 9533.2 billion rubles, for crop production – 5050.6 billion rubles, for livestock – 4482.6 billion rubles.

Authors: CHurilova Elvira IUrevna