FORECAST OF SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND FOOD UNTIL 2046

DOI 10.33305/256-3

Issue № 6, 2025, article № 1, pages 3-21

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ САМООБЕСПЕЧЕННОСТИ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИЕЙ И ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЕМ ДО 2046 ГОДА

Keywords: FORECAST, FOOD SECURITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to substantiate the production volumes of the main types of agricultural products to ensure food security for the population of Russia by 2046. The forecast is made in accordance with the methodology developed at the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution Federal Scientific Center All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Sciences, which takes into account a set of factors affecting the production of agricultural products and providing the population with food. Given the fact that agricultural production in Russia largely depends on the supply of certain types of imported material and technical resources, the question arises: how will such dependence affect the production of agricultural products and food? The article analyzes the impact of a decrease in the supply of imported agricultural machinery on the production volumes of the main types of agricultural products in the sub-sectors of crop production and livestock farming. The forecast for the production of the main types of agricultural products in crop production and livestock farming is calculated according to two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, domestic food is sufficient for self-sufficiency of the population of Russia, with the exception of fruits and berries, some types of vegetables and melons. Export potential: 40 million tons of grain, 3 million tons of sunflower oil, 9.4 million tons of live meat, 11.4 billion eggs. The food needs of the domestic market of Russia in 2046 are determined based on the high scenario: a population of 155 million people (taking into account the expected population of 4 new regions) and rational standards. In all scenarios, consumption standards correspond to the indicators of the Ministry of Health of Russia. In the pessimistic scenario, the deficit in milk production for 155 million people, subject to rational consumption by all groups of the population, will be 14.4 million tons (the standard is 325 kg per person). There is also a deficit of fruits and berries. The possibilities for grain export are limited.

Authors: Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna