Forecast estimates of labor demand in agriculture in Russia

Issue № 3, 2025, article № 14, pages 124-134

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ СПРОСА НА ТРУД В СЕЛЬСКОМ ХОЗЯЙСТВЕ РОССИИ

Keywords: DEMAND FOR LABOR, EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING, STATE PROGRAM DOCUMENTS, SCENARIO FORECAST

Abstract: The influence of the parameters of development of the Russian agricultural sector on the need for workers is studied. Using econometric models, a forecast estimate of the demand for labor in agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing is made based on the criteria of sectoral development laid down in state program documents: the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food Markets (State Program), the Strategy for the Development of the Agro-Industrial and Fishing Complexes of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030 (Strategy) and the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation up to 2027. The forecast for the development of agricultural sector in Russia is based on the results of the study. A decrease in the need for workers is predicted for all expected options for the sector development. At the same time, a serious shortage of personnel in agricultural production is noted, both at present and in the future, especially in accordance with the expected growth rates of investment in fixed assets. It is calculated that by 2030 the output growth rates specified in the State Program may lead to a decrease in labor demand in the industry by 161 thousand people relative to the 2023 level; the implementation of the basic version of the Strategy assumes a decrease in the number of employees by 217 thousand people compared to the 2023 data, and the target version of the Strategy - by 661 thousand people compared to the 2023. The dynamics of investments in fixed capital of the industry, laid down in the State Program, will lead to labor demand in 2030 at the 2023 level; according to the target and basic versions of the Strategy, the need for workers will be 5.9 and 19.8% higher, respectively, than in 2023. The problem of attracting qualified personnel to the industry in the medium term is expected to prevail over the problem of labor release in agricultural production. It is advisable to use the obtained estimates as basic guidelines for long-term planning of the development of the agro-industrial complex and rural areas.

Authors: Bylina Svetlana Gennadievna