Яндекс.Метрика

IMPLEMENTATION OF SIMULATION MODELING IN HOP GROWING: THE FIRST RUSSIAN MODEL OF CALCULATION, PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING (CPDM MODEL) IN THE INDUSTRY


DOI 10.33305/2412-79

Issue № 12, 2024, article № 9, pages 79-86

Section: Agro-industrial market

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВНЕДРЕНИЕ ИМИТАЦИОННОГО МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ В ХМЕЛЕВОДСТВО: ПЕРВАЯ РОССИЙСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ РАСЧЕТА, ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ И ПРИНЯТИЯ РЕШЕНИЙ (МОДЕЛЬ РППР) В ОТРАСЛИ

Keywords: HOP GROWING, HOPS, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, PRODUCTION ORGANIZATION, DIGITALIZATION, PLANNING, BUDGET, SIMULATION ANALYSIS, MODELING

Abstract: The first Russian economic model of calculation, planning and decision-making (CPDM model) in hop growing was developed to ensure the consolidated work of scientific, government and business structures and the formation of a basic model for calculating indicative indicators of the industry based on public accessibility and understandability for all users. To create the model, a large amount of work was carried out aimed at studying the world toolkit for calculating decision-making, building a cost calculation structure, and studying hop cultivation technologies in Russia. In the resulting part of the CPDM model, two groups of indicators are formed that reflect economic and financial indicators. The most difficult period from an economic point of view for hop growers is from the 2nd to the 4th year of crop cultivation. In the zero (preparatory) and 1st years, the state provides quite significant support, and from the 2nd year of crop cultivation, the credit burden increases, subsidies are reduced, and hops do not have time to reach the period of full fruiting. Taking into account the input data included in the model, profit is formed in the 7th year of operation in the industry or in the 6th year of hop cultivation. The payback period is calculated in accordance with the parameters specified in the model (yield - 16 c / ha, cost of hops - 650 rubles / kg) and taking into account the use of state subsidies, is 9 years. When changing the input indicators, the result parameters are automatically recalculated. Thus, the developed model in hop growing allows you to establish the level of influence of factors on the result indicators and assess the efficiency of hop growing under different economic conditions.

Authors: Afanaseva Olesia Gennadevna